The Mets’ Dilemma: Trading Kodai Senga – A Controversial Move?
The baseball world is buzzing with the news that Mets right-hander Kodai Senga has attracted trade interest from multiple clubs. This development has sparked a debate among fans and analysts alike. So, let’s dive into the intriguing story behind this potential trade and explore the reasons why it’s generating such a buzz.
While the Mets aren’t actively shopping Senga, they’ve engaged in discussions with interested teams. This move might seem surprising to casual fans, given Senga’s impressive stats: a flat 3.00 ERA across 52 MLB starts, including a tidy 3.02 ERA in the 2025 season. However, Senga’s status within the organization took a turn during the second half of the 2025 campaign.
And here’s where it gets controversial… After a shoulder injury in 2024, Senga returned with a bang, posting a stellar 1.74 ERA in his initial 13 starts. But could this performance be sustained? Senga’s strikeout and walk rates raised some eyebrows, and his luck on balls in play seemed destined for regression. Metrics like FIP and SIERA hinted at a quality pitcher, but his ERA was a cause for concern.
Unfortunately, Senga’s season took a turn for the worse. A calf strain in mid-June sent him to the injured list, and his return was less than ideal. From July to August, he struggled with a high ERA, diminished strikeout rates, and an alarming walk rate. His home run rate also skyrocketed during this period.
The Mets made a bold move by optioning Senga to Triple-A, hoping to get him back on track. However, Senga’s performance in the minors was inconsistent, leaving his future with the Mets uncertain. Injuries and struggles have limited him to just 146 innings across the past two seasons, raising questions about his durability.
But here’s the part most people miss… The Mets’ rotation is in flux, with several question marks. While Nolan McLean shined as a rookie, other veterans like David Peterson and Clay Holmes had their struggles. Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Tylor Megill all dealt with injuries, and Tong and Sproat remain unproven. This instability makes rotation help a top priority for the Mets this offseason.
So, should the Mets trade Senga? On one hand, selling low on a pitcher with top-of-the-rotation potential seems risky. On the other, Senga’s struggles in 2025 have contributed to the Mets’ current rotation woes. If they’re unsure about his ability to rebound, trading him now might be the prudent move. Waiting could result in an early injury or poor performance, making him even harder to trade.
Senga’s contract adds another layer to this complex situation. The Mets owe him $14MM in 2026 and 2027, with a potential $15MM club option if he suffers a major elbow injury. While the total guarantee is affordable, the Mets are effectively paying double due to luxury tax penalties.
Senga’s contract also includes a limited 10-team no-trade list for the final two years. This gives the Mets more flexibility to trade him, but they won’t simply give up on him without receiving something in return. Senga’s potential, especially relative to his salary, makes him an attractive trade target, but his recent struggles and health concerns make finding common ground with another club a challenging task.
What do you think? Should the Mets trade Senga, or is he too valuable to let go? The debate is open, and we’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below!